The 2012 Forecast & Star Product Review

Jan. 1, 2012
I'm back or, to put it more accurately, it's back. Our second annual forecasting and Star Products edition. Last year, for the first time that I've seen

I'm back or, to put it more accurately, it's back. Our second annual forecasting and Star Products edition.

Last year, for the first time that I've seen in our industry, we attempted a broad and exhaustive review of various forecasting perspectives. Our goal was simple: We wanted to time our information to assist wholesalers with their own planning for the New Year.

And that is the goal of this issue. We have an impressive lineup. We continue to provide you with the latest (as of press time) forecasts from the federal government courtesy of the Congressional Budget Office. We also have additional insights from HARDI's knowledgeable economist (and entertaining speaker) Alan Beaulieu. Steve Tusa returns to our pages with a Wall Street view. We have added two new major manufacturers, Nordyne and Rheem, to help us gauge the suppliers' perspective for 2012. Nor have we ignored the contractors, once again gaining an assessment from our friends at ACCA and RSES.

There are several new contributors. I've asked Paul Sloate, a Philadelphia-based money manager, who is terrific at looking at the big picture for his clients, to share his insights on the new construction market. While that industry is certainly lagging, it has and will continue to exert a sizable influence on our business.

I've also asked Christopher Ezold to address the issue of personal forecasting. Because many owners' and managers' fortunes have an inexorable link to their businesses, it dawned on me that the people in the operations ARE the business. The logic seemed to cry out for a forecast of one's own personal financial and tax planning in addition to the scrutiny they apply to their wholesale business. Chris possesses a legal and tax expertise and is intimately involved in providing advice to businesses, which is why I asked for his participation.

Then, there's my friend and one-time boss, Joe Pulizzi. Joe is the top content marketer proponent in the United States and the founder of the Content Market Institute (CMI). A strong component of the sage advice he dispenses is about social media. He is also familiar with our industry. Given that social media is now a “given” in how we promote our businesses, I asked him for some projections about this new communications field, which actually no longer seems novel, and what we should expect this year.

Lastly, there are our Star Products. These are the best and the brightest products that you should examine carefully because they represent the star performers for our various suppliers.

Welcome to 2012, and take a moment to discover which forecasting article is most important to you and how it might help in planning for 2012.

Allow me this closing request. We have tried mightily to cover many of the forecasting issues in this month's publication. However, if there is any aspect of our approach that you feel would add even more value for our readers in 2013, I look forward to your suggestions. Just call or send me an email.

Also, suppliers should be on the lookout for our emails in the fall, asking for your Star Products nomination. Invariably, after the issue comes out, I hear a supplier say, “I should have been in there.” Feel free to contact me in October this year to nominate your Star Product. You'll beat the rush and if you believe in your product, you should give it the exposure it deserves.

Happy New Year.

HVACR Distribution Business welcomes letters to the editor. Please send correspondence to: Tom Pericˊ, Editor 2040 Fairfax Avenue Cherry Hill, NJ 08003 856/874-0049 or email [email protected].