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Don't turn turtle!

Get Ready for a Surge in HVAC Replacements

April 29, 2020
The numbers don't lie, says Matt Michel, who analyzed weather and past system sales going back to 2004. Don't be caught off-guard for the surge!

April 29, 2020, Lewisville, Tex. — Matt Michel always keeps his head when all about him are losing theirs. 

This time, the CEO of Service Nation has provided a very positive analysis of the heating, ventilation and air conditioning replacement market, and he predicts 2020 will be a tremendous year for HVAC service and replacement contractors.

Basically, Michel says, the math doesn't lie, and he proves it, in a video he's posted to YouTube, HERE. Actual AHRI shipment data provides the basis for his prediction.

"Fifteen years ago, in the best year in the history of HVAC, we had 8.6 million residential installations. Last year, a late summer resulted in 500,000 deferred replacements. Assuming a a 15-year lifespan for systems installed in 2004-2005, when you add those together, the replacement market is projected to grow 26%."

Michel says this will occur even after the onset of the coronavirus business shutdowns. Homeowners have been working from home and running their HVAC systems non-stop, which will accelerate the final decline of older systems that are ready to be replaced.

"I don't know how we can handle 9.1 million replacements [due to the HVAC labor shortage], so it's going to be a little bit short of that, but it's still going to be a lot more than it was last year. This stands to be one of the best years in the history of the industry," Michel says.

In today's current business environment, Michel says enterprising contractors should act now to gain business that's being ignored by "turtles" who have withdrawn from the market. 

"We recommend you increase your advertising and marketing. When it gets harder to find a customer, put more effort into finding them.If you can increase your advertising and marketing, the withdrawing contractors disappear and you gain market share.You will make gains that they will never be able to make up."

"Line up good consumer financing to make systems affordable to the people who are concerned or worried about money. Recruit technicians and installers from competitors who are withdrawing. There are good people out there, and this is a prime opportunity to increase your skilled labor."

Find Matt's YouTube video HERE.

About the Author

Terry McIver | Content Director - CB

A career publishing professional, Terence 'Terry' McIver has served three diverse industry publications in varying degrees of responsibility since 1987, and worked in marketing communications for a major U.S. corporation.He joined the staff of Contracting Business magazine in April 2005.

As director of content for Contracting Business, he produces daily content and feature articles for CB's 38,000 print subscribers and many more Internet visitors. He has written hundreds, if not two or three, pieces of news, features and contractor profile articles for CB's audience of quality HVACR contractors. He can also be found covering HVACR industry events or visiting with manufacturers and contractors. He also has significant experience in trade show planning.