The Heating, Airconditioning and Refrigeration Distributors International (HARDI) has partnered with J.P. Morgan Equity Research in their latest proprietary HVAC distributor survey released in July, which collected market projections for this cooling season. This is the first time that the firm’s research department has worked with HARDI to survey its U.S. HVAC equipment distributors.
Ninety-three HVAC equipment distributor HARDI-member companies contributed to this report intended to overview and forecast the HVAC equipment market for the summer of 2009. J.P. Morgan states that results were largely in line with their expectations, though there were interesting comments surrounding price, inventories and stimulus. They continue to see a difficult 2009, with a recovery in 2010 for residential driven by pent-up replacement demand.
Additional key points from the 45-page report were highlighted including:
- Residential end markets weak, with cooler weather and a soft start to the summer selling season.
- Increased repair rates appear to continue near-term, but these systems likely to be replaced in coming years, key to J.P. Morgan’s view of sustainable long-term recovery.
- Commercial likely down worse than residential in 2010.
- Inventories appear about in line with sales declines but contrary to OEM reports are not unusually lean, with some safety stock for the R410 transition.
- Price will be a challenge for OEMs.
- Stimulus a mixed bag, but most distributors are optimistic.
- R410a transition not likely to lead to significant replacement demand.
- Consolidation remains an important trend to watch.
Although the report is for J.P. Morgan clients only, HARDI has made the initial report available to all member companies. (Members can contact the association to receive a copy.) A representative group of HARDI distributors by geography and equipment lines participated in an August 6th conference call with J.P. Morgan clients to review the survey’s results in greater detail. The next HARDI-J.P. Morgan collaboration will be a post-season survey and report later this year.
J.P. Morgan is the investment banking arm of JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM), a leading global financial services firm with assets of $2.2 trillion and operations in more than 60 countries. The firm is a leader in investment banking, financial services for consumers, small business and commercial banking, financial transaction processing, asset management, and private equity. A component of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, JPMorgan Chase & Co. serves millions of consumers in the United States and many of the world’s most prominent corporate, institutional and government clients under its J.P. Morgan, Chase, and WaMu brands. Information about JPMorgan Chase & Co. is available at www.jpmorgan.com.
The Heating, Air-Conditioning and Refrigeration Distributors International (HARDI) represents over 460 wholesale companies, including 17 international companies, plus over 300 manufacturing associates and nearly 140 manufacturer representatives. It is estimated that HARDI members represent 80 percent of the dollar value of the HVACR products sold through distribution.