HVAC Market Slowdown: Combined AC and Heat Pump Shipments Fall 14% YTD in 2025

Year-to-date U.S. shipments of gas warm air furnaces increased 8%, to 2,497,227 units, compared to 2,312,214 units shipped during the same period in 2024. Year-to-date U.S. shipments of oil warm air furnaces increased 11.5%, to 21,904 units, compared to 19,653 units shipped during the same period in 2024. 

Year-to-date combined shipments of central air conditioners and air-source heat pumps decreased 14.3% to 6,548,942, compared to 7,639,648 units shipped during the same period in 2024. Year-to-date shipments of central air conditioners decreased 20.2%, to 3,532,005 units, compared to 4,423,927 units shipped during the same period in 2024. The year-to-date total for heat pump shipments decreased 6.2% to 3,016,937, compared to 3,215,721 units shipped during the same period in 2024.

Industry data is aggregated from the information supplied by AHRI member companies that participate in the Statistics Program and can be subject to revision. Published year-to-date data is inclusive of all revisions. No other AHRI data (e.g., by state or region) is available to the public other than that published. AHRI does not conduct any market forecasting and is not qualified to discuss market trends. Btu/h of 64.9 and below are for residential units; 65.0 and above for commercial. 
 
For previous monthly shipment releases and historical data, visit www.ahrinet.org/statistics.