HVAC Services Demand Rises as Aging Systems Fuel Retrofit Growth
Key Highlights
- The HVAC services market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 6.2% from 2025 to 2030, reaching nearly $98 billion.
- Upgradation and replacement services will grow at an 8.1% CAGR, driven by aging infrastructure and energy efficiency mandates.
- Commercial facilities, including healthcare and data centers, are the fastest-growing end-user segments due to increased focus on system reliability and indoor air quality.
DELRAY BEACH, Florida — The HVAC services market is projected to grow from $72.5 billion in 2025 to $97.9 billion by 2030, according to a new report from MarketsandMarkets. The firm estimates the market will expand at a compound annual growth rate of 6.2% during the forecast period.
The growth reflects increasing demand for installation, maintenance, repair, and system upgrades across residential and commercial buildings. Aging equipment, rising retrofit activity, and tighter energy efficiency requirements are driving building owners to invest in ongoing HVAC service rather than one-time system installations.
MarketsandMarkets reports that upgradation and replacement services are expected to grow at the highest rate, with an estimated CAGR of 8.1% through 2030. New construction buildings are also forecast to see strong growth, while commercial facilities are expected to be the fastest-growing end-user segment.
The report notes that commercial environments — including health care facilities, data centers, industrial sites, hotels, and office buildings — are placing greater emphasis on system reliability, ventilation performance, and indoor air quality. These priorities are increasing demand for preventive maintenance, commissioning, and long-term service contracts.
According to the analysis, the retrofit segment is expected to grow rapidly as buildings reach mid-to-late lifecycle stages. MarketsandMarkets cites data from the International Energy Agency indicating that more than 60% of today’s buildings will require modernization by 2040 to meet energy and climate benchmarks. This trend is contributing to higher demand for refrigerant replacements, energy optimization, and predictive maintenance services.
Installation services are projected to hold the largest share of the HVAC services market in 2025, supported by the deployment of advanced systems such as heat pumps, variable refrigerant flow systems, and digitally enabled HVAC equipment. As systems become more complex, certified installation and commissioning are playing a larger role in long-term system performance.
The report also highlights the growing role of digitalization in HVAC services, including remote monitoring, Internet of Things-enabled diagnostics, and data-driven maintenance strategies. These capabilities are increasingly tied to compliance with building performance standards and indoor air quality guidelines.
Note: This piece was created with the help of generative AI tools and edited by our content team for clarity and accuracy.