Commercial HVAC Forecast Highlights Low-GWP Refrigerant Shift in 2026

SUWANEE, Georgia — The 2026 commercial HVAC forecast from Mitsubishi Electric Trane HVAC US (METUS) highlights three trends shaping the market: low-GWP refrigerants, personalized comfort, and growing adoption of electric hydronic systems.

Effective Jan.1, 2026, manufacturers can no longer produce or import commercial variable refrigerant flow equipment using R-410A. The industry is transitioning to lower-GWP alternatives such as R-32, which has a global warming potential of 675 compared to 2,088 for R-410A.

According to METUS, R-32 equipment will be available as the transition progresses. The company also stated it will continue supporting existing R-410A warranties and parts for at least another decade. R-410A systems will remain available from the company through the first half of 2026.

The shift affects system design, inventory planning, and workforce readiness. Contractors are encouraged to pre-order equipment during the project submittal phase to help secure inventory. Training for technicians, engineers, architects, and distributors is also critical as safety protocols and code-compliance requirements evolve. The company noted that installations may increasingly feature a higher number of smaller variable refrigerant flow systems rather than fewer large systems.

METUS also pointed to improvements in system performance. Newer variable refrigerant flow technology is achieving stronger Integrated Energy Efficiency Ratio ratings and higher heating coefficient of performance scores, which can contribute to energy savings and lower operating costs.

At the same time, demand for personalized comfort continues to grow in commercial spaces. Facility managers are turning to variable refrigerant flow and Hybrid Variable Refrigerant Flow systems to deliver zoned temperature control and occupant-level adjustments.

The company cited upgrades at Weber State University in Ogden, Utah, where water-source variable refrigerant flow and Hybrid Variable Refrigerant Flow systems replaced chilled water and steam systems in several buildings. In the university’s six-level SkySuites building, individual thermostats now allow occupants to control temperatures in offices, suites, and common areas.

Another project example is the Westin Atlanta Gwinnett, where 348 rooms and suites use variable refrigerant flow systems to provide individual guest control. Carl Hren, executive vice president of development at Concord Hospitality Enterprises, said the system design addressed comfort challenges associated with conventional packaged terminal air conditioners.

The forecast also highlights growing competition for traditional boilers from electric hydronic systems. All-electric, air-source heat pumps are increasingly used in three-phase applications for space heating and domestic hot water.

The company stated that all-electric systems can reduce inspections and maintenance associated with fossil fuel combustion equipment. Modular designs may also simplify installation and service. Legislative changes aimed at reducing fossil fuel use, along with infrastructure considerations in rural areas, are contributing to increased interest in electric solutions.

Applications expected to explore three-phase electric options in 2026 include multi-family residences, hospitals, factories, dormitories, hotels, and health centers.

“Continuous innovation will define the next chapter of growth for HVAC professionals,” said David Archer, vice president of commercial business at METUS. “Those who embrace these changes will set the standard for sustainable, future-forward buildings.”

Note: This piece was created with the help of generative AI tools and edited by our content team for clarity and accuracy.