HARDI Reports 4.8% HVACR Distributor Sales Decline in May 2026
Why It Matters
- Cooling season demand signals are mixed. A 4.8% distributor sales decline in May suggests softer early cooling-season momentum, which may translate into more competitive pricing or uneven job flow for contractors.
- Market conditions remain dependent on weather. HARDI’s outlook highlights how upcoming summer weather patterns will be critical in driving demand, meaning contractors may see fluctuations in service calls and replacement activity.
- Inventory and purchasing timing matter more. With distributor sales showing volatility, contractors may need to be more strategic about stocking equipment and parts to avoid delays or excess inventory during shifting demand cycles.
COLUMBUS, Ohio — Heating, Air-conditioning & Refrigeration Distributors International (HARDI) released its monthly TRENDS report, showing sales by HARDI distributors decreased by 4.8% during May 2026.
The annual sales growth for the 12 months through May 2026 is an increase of 2.6%.
“Almost a 5% sales decline is a lousy start for the first meaningful month of cooling season, but it is not as weak as the headline,” said Brian Loftus, Senior Market Analyst at HARDI. “This May had one less billing day than May of 2025. We estimate sales would have been about flat or comparable year-to-year with the same number of billing days.”
HARDI’s monthly distributor sales survey also calculates Days Sales Outstanding or DSO which is a measure of how quickly customers pay their bills. The DSO for May 2026 was less than 38 days. “There is seasonality to the DSO, so we need to compare the latest results to the corresponding prior months,” said Loftus. “The May DSO is a bit quick than the 40 days reported during May of 2022, may of 2023, and May of 2024.”
“An early start to heating season got sales off and running in our Northeast and Mid-Atlantic regions,” said Loftus. “With a lot of difficult weather comps across the country during the next couple of months, we need that summer magic to cook-up some demand or our annual sales growth will remain in low single-digit range.”
HARDI members do not receive financial compensation in exchange for their monthly sales data and can discontinue their participation without prior notice or penalty. Participation is voluntary, and the depth of market coverage varies from region to region. An independent entity collects and compiles the data that can include products not directly associated with the HVACR industry.